Select Demand Forecast Part
Explanation
From the result of you filter selection, you can then select the item
that you want to work with simply by clicking on the wanted item. The sort
order of the filter can be decided by changing the Sort by field and
direction on the top of the part selector.
You can sort by all fields in the Detail View.
In addition to the Detail View fields you have these fields as well :
- Percent Adjusted/Budget, sums the Adjusted Forecast and budget
numbers for all periods in the forecast range. Then we divide ( sum
Adjusted Forecast / Sum Budget ) * 100 this is the value shown in the
part selector. If Percent Adjusted/Budget is 100 it means that the Sum
of the Adjusted Forecast and Budget in the Forecast Range is exactly the
same, when the Percent Adjusted/Budget is > 100 it means that the sum of
the Adjusted Forecast is bigger than the sum of the budget values. Thus
a Percent Adjusted/Budget number bigger than 100 indicates that the sum
of the Budget numbers in the forecast horizon is bigger than the sum of
the Adjusted Forecast numbers.
- Percent Adjusted/Target Sales Plan, sums the adjusted forecast and
Target Sakes Plan numbers for all periods in the forecast range. ( Then
we divide sum Adjusted Forecast / Sum Target Sales Plan ) * 100 this is
the value shown in the part selector.
- Percent Adjusted/Events, sums the Adjusted Forecast and absolute
Event numbers for all periods in the forecast range. Then we divide (sum
Adjusted Forecast / Sum Abs Events) * 100 this is the value shown in the
part selector. The bigger the percentage number the larger is the sum of
the Events compared to the sum of the Adjusted forecast for the part.
- Percent Historical Forecast/Events, sums the Historical Forecast and
Historical Event numbers in the set Forecast Error Period range (see
Enter General Server Data).
Then we divide (sum Historical Forecast / sum Events) this is the number
shown in the part selector.
- Outlier factor, the part with the most recent and biggest outliner
first, and so on. An outlier is a part that has a demand period outside
of 2 standard deviation, the further out side 2 standard derivations the
higher up in the list and the more recent the higher up in the list. The
Outlier factor is calculated like this :
- For each period in Forecast Error Period Range (see
Enter General Server Data),
staring with the most recent period and ending with the oldest
period.
- Take the difference between the explanation forecast and the
adjusted demand
- Compare this to the 2 x standard derivations (confidence
interval) for the same period
- if the difference between the explanation forecast and adjusted
demand is bigger than 2 standard derivations then multiply the
outlier factor for this period with 1.000.000
- Over the Forecast Error Period Range we run an EWMA smoothing
process with alpha 0.25 (this can be changed in
Advanced Settings
Settings/OutlinerSmoother)
Prerequisites
- The Demand Plan Server needs to be running.
- Forecast Parts needs to be published to the current users
- Filter Selection needs to be made
System Effects
The selected item will be shown in the Selected Workbench (Forecast or
Seasonal Profile)